By Wes Grant-Parke, You Fish Scotland
Professional Scottish fly-fishing guide | SGAIC Qualified | FFI Certified Instructor
Scotland’s Atlantic Salmon Are in Serious Trouble
Scotland has a salmon problem.
Not a minor problem. Not a problem that can be pushed into another five-year strategy document.
It is a conservation crisis that demands action.
The latest Scottish Government assessment of wild Atlantic salmon stocks makes the situation particularly clear. For the proposed 2027 fishing season, 123 of Scotland’s 173 assessed salmon stocks – 71% – are classified as being in poor conservation status. In 2017, 75 stocks were classified as poor and 61 were classified as good. For 2027, only 22 stocks are proposed to be in good conservation status.
That is a dramatic deterioration.
For those of us who spend our working lives on Scotland’s rivers, these statistics are not simply numbers on a government spreadsheet.
We see the changes on the water.
We see fewer salmon.
We see rivers where salmon fishing has become increasingly difficult.
And we have to ask a very serious question:
What happens if we continue managing declining salmon populations without doing enough to rebuild them?
Why Are Scottish Salmon Numbers Declining?
There is no single reason why Atlantic salmon numbers are declining.
Salmon are an extraordinarily complex species. During their lifecycle they depend upon freshwater rivers, estuaries, coastal waters and the North Atlantic.
That means they face multiple pressures.
The Scottish Government itself recognises a range of pressures affecting wild salmon, including climate change, habitat degradation, predation, barriers to migration, disease, exploitation and pressures occurring in the marine environment.
The important point is this:
We cannot save Scottish salmon by tackling only one problem.
We need a whole-lifecycle recovery programme.
That means protecting salmon eggs and fry.
It means improving juvenile survival.
It means protecting smolts as they migrate downstream.
It means improving river habitat.
It means tackling barriers.
It means understanding what is happening to salmon at sea.
And where predation is demonstrably contributing to mortality, it means being prepared to manage predators.
What Does the Decline Mean for the Future of Salmon Fishing in Scotland?
The future of salmon fishing in Scotland is directly linked to the future of wild salmon.
That may sound obvious, but it is sometimes forgotten.
If fewer adult salmon return to Scottish rivers, fewer fish are available to spawn.
If fewer fish spawn successfully, fewer juvenile salmon may enter the next generation.
If that cycle continues for long enough, individual river populations can become dangerously small.
Eventually, there may be too few returning adults to maintain a resilient population.
That is why conservation cannot simply mean protecting the last remaining salmon.
Conservation must also mean rebuilding salmon populations.
Scotland should be aiming for rivers that can support strong, self-sustaining wild salmon populations rather than simply accepting progressively lower numbers as the new normal.
Salmon Conservation Cannot Be Based on Anglers Alone
Scottish anglers have already made significant sacrifices.
Catch-and-release has become an important part of salmon conservation, and Scottish regulations already restrict the retention of salmon where conservation status requires it. Poor-status stocks require mandatory catch-and-release under the current conservation framework.
Anglers should continue to play their part.
But there is a limit to what anglers can achieve by themselves.
If anglers release every salmon they catch, but the river still loses large numbers of salmon through poor habitat, barriers, predation or other mortality, simply asking anglers to do more will not solve the underlying problem.
We need a whole-river approach.
Predation: We Need an Honest Conversation
One of the most controversial subjects in Scottish salmon conservation is predation.
It is also a subject that cannot simply be ignored.
The Scottish Government’s own Wild Salmon Strategy Science and Evidence Board has confirmed that goosanders, mergansers and cormorants can consume substantial numbers of salmon at the smolt and pre-smolt stages. It has also identified seals entering rivers and consuming salmon, with some individual seals specialising in salmon smolts.
The Government’s scientific advice also recognises that salmon can become particularly vulnerable at artificial or natural pinch-points, including around weirs and fish-pass entrances and exits.
This is important.
When salmon numbers are healthy, a certain level of natural predation may be sustainable.
When salmon populations are already severely depleted, however, the impact of additional mortality can become much more significant.
The Government’s own Science and Evidence Board discussed this issue in 2025, noting that juvenile salmon in some areas were no longer at “saturation”, meaning predation losses could become additive rather than simply removing surplus juvenile fish.
That deserves serious consideration.
Should Scotland Control Birds and Seals to Protect Salmon?
This is where the debate becomes politically difficult.
My view is straightforward:
Where robust scientific evidence demonstrates that specific predators are having a significant impact on a vulnerable salmon population, the Government should have the ability to intervene.
That does not mean indiscriminate killing of wildlife.
It means targeted, evidence-based predator management.
There should be a clear hierarchy:
- Identify where predation is occurring.
- Measure its impact.
- Use non-lethal deterrents wherever they are effective.
- Protect salmon at known migration pinch-points.
- Monitor the results.
- Where non-lethal measures demonstrably fail and a salmon population is at serious risk, consider tightly controlled lethal intervention within the law.
The Scottish Government’s own evidence review acknowledges that acoustic deterrents for seals have had mixed results and identifies sonar-triggered acoustic deterrent technology as a potentially promising non-lethal approach. It also recognises that shooting river-specialist seals is a potential management option where non-lethal measures are ineffective and the necessary conservation and legal requirements are met.
That is a very different proposition from indiscriminate predator control.
It is targeted conservation management.
We Also Need to Look at Other Salmon Predators
The predator debate should not stop with birds and seals.
Scotland’s Wild Salmon Strategy identifies a range of potential salmon predators, including fish such as pike, trout and eels, as well as birds and mammals.
This is another reason why Scotland needs better monitoring.
We need to know where salmon mortality is occurring and what is causing it.
Without good data, conservation becomes an argument rather than a science.
Should Scotland Build More Salmon Hatcheries?
This is perhaps one of the most important questions facing Scottish salmon conservation.
My answer is:
Scotland should be prepared to use conservation hatcheries and recovery stocking where the scientific evidence shows they can help prevent the loss of a vulnerable wild salmon population.
But this needs to be done properly.
I would not support simply putting a hatchery on every Scottish river and releasing large numbers of salmon without a carefully designed conservation programme.
There are significant scientific risks associated with poorly managed stocking.
The Scottish Government’s Wild Salmon Strategy Science and Evidence Board has identified risks including loss of local genetic adaptation, artificial selection, handling of adult salmon, hatchery-related mortality and mixing different genetic populations.
Therefore, hatchery programmes should be:
- River specific.
- Scientifically designed.
- Genetically responsible.
- Properly monitored.
- Transparent.
- Independently evaluated.
- Focused on conservation rather than simply increasing catches.
The objective should always be:
Use hatchery intervention to help rebuild a self-sustaining wild population.
Not to create a permanent dependency on artificial stocking.
Scotland Should Learn From Iceland
Iceland provides an interesting example of what can be achieved through salmon enhancement.
Iceland has used salmon enhancement techniques in certain river systems, including the release of salmon at different stages of development.
The lesson Scotland should take from Iceland is not that we should simply copy its approach.
The lesson is that active intervention can form part of a wider salmon recovery strategy when it is properly designed, monitored and adapted to local conditions.
Scotland should examine international evidence carefully and identify which approaches could work in Scottish rivers.
We should learn from both the successes and failures of salmon enhancement programmes elsewhere.
What About Reintroducing Salmon to Rivers Where They Have Disappeared?
This is another area that deserves serious consideration.
If a salmon population disappears completely from a river, natural recolonisation may not always occur quickly enough to prevent the loss of suitable habitat and the wider ecological consequences.
The Scottish Government’s scientific advice currently states that introducing salmon from another population is generally not recommended where the native population could still recover naturally. However, where a population has become extinct, introduction could potentially form part of a recovery programme.
That distinction is important.
Protect native populations wherever they still exist.
But where salmon have genuinely disappeared, Scotland should not automatically rule out carefully controlled reintroduction.
What Should the Scottish Government Do Now?
Scotland already has a Wild Salmon Strategy and a 2023–2028 implementation plan. That plan includes actions relating to predation, stocking, habitat, scientific research and salmon management.
But the latest salmon figures demonstrate that we need to ask whether the current pace and scale of action are sufficient.
In my view, Scotland needs a much more ambitious National Wild Salmon Recovery Programme.
That programme should include:
1. A dedicated Scottish Salmon Recovery Fund
Long-term funding should be provided specifically for measurable salmon recovery projects.
2. River-by-river salmon recovery plans
Every river should have a clear understanding of:
- Adult salmon returns.
- Juvenile abundance.
- Smolt production.
- Spawning habitat.
- Water temperature.
- Migration barriers.
- Predation pressure.
- Marine survival.
- Habitat quality.
3. Targeted predator management
Where science demonstrates that predation is materially affecting vulnerable salmon populations, intervention should be possible.
4. Strategic conservation hatcheries
Hatcheries should be considered for rivers at serious risk of local extinction, subject to rigorous genetic and ecological safeguards.
5. Salmon reintroduction programmes
Where native salmon populations have disappeared completely, scientifically justified reintroduction should remain an available conservation tool.
6. Remove barriers to migration
Every unnecessary barrier should be identified and, where feasible, removed.
Where removal is impossible, effective fish passage should be provided.
7. Restore salmon habitat
Healthy salmon require healthy rivers.
We need:
- Better spawning habitat.
- Cleaner gravel.
- More natural river processes.
- Riparian woodland.
- Shade to reduce summer water temperatures.
- Reduced sedimentation.
- Better protection of tributaries and headwaters.
8. Improve smolt survival
The downstream journey is one of the most vulnerable periods of a salmon’s life.
Scotland needs to identify the places where smolts are being lost and take action accordingly.
9. Address the marine survival problem
We cannot save salmon entirely from the riverbank.
Scottish salmon spend a large part of their lives at sea, and the decline is occurring across the wider North Atlantic.
Marine survival therefore needs to remain central to salmon research and policy.
10. Measure results – and change course when necessary
Every conservation intervention should have measurable objectives.
If something works, expand it.
If it fails, change it.
If the evidence says we need to intervene, intervene.
The Greatest Danger Is Accepting Decline as Normal
Perhaps the biggest danger facing Scottish salmon is not one particular predator, river or environmental pressure.
It is complacency.
We cannot allow declining salmon numbers to become the new normal.
The Scottish Government’s latest assessment shows that the number of stocks classified as poor has increased from 75 in 2017 to a proposed 123 for the 2027 season.
That is not a statistic we should simply accept.
It should be a call to action.
We Need to Stop Managing Decline and Start Managing Recovery
As a professional fishing guide, I want future generations to experience what makes Scottish salmon fishing so special.
I want young anglers to stand on a Highland river and watch a fresh Atlantic salmon enter the pool.
I want salmon to remain part of Scotland’s natural heritage.
I want rural communities to benefit from sustainable fishing tourism.
And I want our rivers to contain enough wild salmon that conservation is about maintaining abundance rather than desperately trying to prevent extinction.
That means protecting the fish we have.
But it also means building the populations back up.
We should use every responsible tool available:
Habitat restoration.
Barrier removal.
Better science.
Improved smolt survival.
Targeted predator management.
Conservation stocking where justified.
Reintroduction where appropriate.
International collaboration.
And above all, a willingness to act before another Scottish salmon population disappears.
The Future of Scotland’s Wild Salmon Is in Our Hands
The Atlantic salmon has survived for thousands of years.
It has survived floods, droughts, predators and enormous changes to its environment.
But today’s salmon are facing a combination of pressures that we cannot ignore.
The latest Scottish figures should be the point at which the conversation changes.
We should no longer be asking:
“How do we manage fewer salmon?”
We should be asking:
“How do we produce more wild salmon?”
That is the question that matters.
Because Scotland does not need a future where salmon fishing becomes a memory.
Scotland needs a future where wild Atlantic salmon once again thrive in our rivers.
And achieving that will require something more than another strategy.
It will require action, investment, scientific courage and the willingness to intervene when intervention is necessary.
The salmon cannot speak for themselves.
We have to speak for them.
About the Author
Wes Grant-Parke is the founder and professional fishing guide behind You Fish Scotland, based in Inverness and the Scottish Highlands. Wes has more than 18 years of full-time professional guiding experience and specialises in Scottish fly fishing, including Atlantic salmon, sea trout and wild brown trout.
His work takes him onto Scotland’s rivers throughout the season, giving him first-hand experience of the challenges facing anglers, fisheries and the wider Scottish salmon environment.
Frequently Asked Questions About Scottish Salmon
Are Scottish salmon numbers declining?
Yes. The latest Scottish Government assessment proposes that 123 of 173 assessed salmon stocks are in poor conservation status for the 2027 season.
Why are Atlantic salmon declining in Scotland?
Scottish salmon face multiple pressures, including climate change, habitat degradation, predation, barriers to migration and declining marine survival. No single factor explains the decline across all rivers.
Do seals eat Scottish salmon?
Yes. Scottish Government scientific advice confirms that some seals enter rivers and consume salmon, while individual seals can specialise in taking salmon smolts.
Do birds eat salmon smolts?
Yes. Goosanders, mergansers and cormorants can consume substantial numbers of salmon at the smolt and pre-smolt stages.
Could hatcheries help Scottish salmon populations?
Potentially, but hatchery and stocking programmes carry genetic and ecological risks. They should therefore be used selectively, scientifically and with rigorous monitoring rather than as a blanket solution for every Scottish river.
Could salmon be reintroduced to rivers where they have disappeared?
Potentially. Scottish scientific advice indicates that introducing salmon from another population may be considered as part of a recovery programme where a population has become extinct, although protecting and recovering native populations remains preferable wherever possible.
What can anglers do to help Scottish salmon?
Anglers can support catch-and-release, handle fish carefully, follow local conservation regulations, report illegal fishing and support river habitat and salmon restoration projects.
Sources and further reading
The principal scientific and policy evidence used for this article comes from the Scottish Government Marine Directorate, including the 2026 assessment of Scottish salmon stocks, the Scottish Wild Salmon Strategy, and advice from the Wild Salmon Strategy Science and Evidence Board.
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